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Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction (Hardback)
Code: 189203
$16.98   $28.00


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In Superforecasting, Tetlock and coauthor Dan Gardner offer a masterwork on prediction, drawing on decades of research and the results of a massive, government-funded forecasting tournament. The Good Judgment Project involves tens of thousands of ordinary peopleÑincluding a Brooklyn filmmaker, a retired pipe installer, and a former ballroom dancerÑwho set out to forecast global events. Some of the volunteers have turned out to be astonishingly good. TheyÕve beaten other benchmarks, competitors, and prediction markets. TheyÕve even beaten the collective judgment of intelligence analysts with access to classified information. They are "superforecasters." In this groundbreaking and accessible book, Tetlock and Gardner show us how we can learn from this elite group. Weaving together stories of forecasting successes (the raid on Osama bin LadenÕs compound) and failures (the Bay of Pigs) and interviews with a range of high-level decision makers, from David Petraeus to Robert Rubin, they show that good forecasting doesnÕt require powerful computers or arcane methods. It involves gathering evidence from a variety of sources, thinking probabilistically, working in teams, keeping score, and being willing to admit error and change course. Superforecasting offers the first demonstrably effective way to improve our ability to predict the futureÑwhether in business, finance, politics, international affairs, or daily lifeÑand is destined to become a modern classic.
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Hardback

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